Bettors were quite certain that the CEO of Telegram would be released in September. His release on Wednesday turned the market on its head. Bettors on Polymarket were largely mistaken about how long Telegram CEO Pavel Durov would remain in French custody. On August 28, Durov was freed on bond—earlier than most gamblers had predicted. On August 28, Pavel Durov, the CEO of Telegram, was suddenly freed on bail, ending the French authorities’ ability to hold him. This unexpected action may have cost wagerers $270,000 in winnings on Polymarket, a bitcoin prediction market. On Wednesday, Durov was formally accused. He posted a bond of five million euros ($5.6 million) and was granted bail. He consented to stay in the nation and report to the police twice a week as part of his bail requirements. The immediate release was contrary to the overall sentiment of the bettors, who believed that extended detention was more likely. At one point, the probability of an August release was priced in the mid-30% range, while the likelihood of release before October was priced between 75%-90%. The probability of an August release rose to 50% when French authorities announced he had been released on bail. Each bet involved a “Yes” or “No” option. Each share pays out $1 in USDC, a stablecoin that trades equivalent to the US dollar, if the prediction is correct, and nothing if it is not. Overall, bettors lost $270,000 by betting “No” on an August release and “No” on a release before October. Likely, bettors had placed their money on French authorities holding onto Durov for as long as possible. As a man of considerable wealth and multiple nationalities – including the UAE, which does not extradite its citizens – Durov would have the means to flee the country, which is why bettors believed that France would do everything it could to keep him in custody. On the other side of the trade, a user named “Champ” correctly predicted that Durov would be released in August and before October, and was the largest holder of “Yes” shares in both contracts. Overall, Champ won $26,138 between the two contracts, meaning they took home $56,638 after winning on their original bet. Another contract gives Durov a 6% chance of fleeing France by mid-month, meaning bettors expect him to comply with his bail conditions. Although Durov’s legal challenges have been a topic of discussion in the crypto community this week, they will not take center stage when Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump hosts a live town hall in Wisconsin later on Thursday. Bettors are only giving a 14% chance that Trump will mention Durov’s name during the event, compared to a 92% chance that he will say “MAGA” and an 84% chance that he will use the term “Border Czar.”